Israel Update 28.11.24

CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT in the Hizbullah war came into effect 4 a.m. Wednesday

Text of the 13 articles of the ceasefire agreement.

An appendix includes a map defining the area where Hizbullah forces are prohibited from operating and where the Lebanese army must dismantle remaining unauthorized facilities. Article here

Inter alia the agreement provides that the Lebanese government will prevent Hezbollah and any other armed group in Lebanon from conducting operations against Israel…The U.S. recognizes Israel’s right to respond to threats coming from Lebanese territory in accordance with international law. In the region south of the Litani River, Israel reserves the right to act at any time against violations of the commitments. North of the Litani, Israel reserves the right to act against the development of threats directed against it, if Lebanon is unable or unwilling to thwart these threats. Report here

The U.S. will now be tasked with maintaining calm along the Israel-Lebanon border and must monitor violations.
U.S. officials say the next step is for the Lebanese military to move into southern Lebanon and ensure that the Hizbullah militia is moving north and any remaining heavy weaponry is removed. The Lebanese military failed to carry out a similar agreement after the 2006 war between Israel and Hizbullah.
A U.S. official contended that this time around, the U.S. will be more actively involved. Report here

While some residents in the north welcome the possibility of returning to their homes and pre-war routines, northern officials have expressed concern about a ceasefire deal that they say won’t guarantee security to the region. Report here

The IDF said Wednesday that any Hezbollah violation of the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon “will be answered with fire,” after troops fired warning shots at people trying to approach several southern Lebanon villages on the first day of the ceasefire.Report here

Today, Thursday, the IDF reported an airstrike against a Hezbollah facility in southern Lebanon, after identifying activity there. The facility had been used to hold medium-range rockets. “The IDF is deployed in southern Lebanon, acting and thwarting any violation of the ceasefire agreement.”Report here

The reasons behind Israel’s decision according to a senior official;

“First, we aim to prevent, as much as possible, a UN Security Council resolution addressing both the north and the south…Once a resolution is passed, it becomes irreversible.”

Secondly “Reserve soldiers have been engaged in over a year of fighting, moving from Lebanon to Gaza and back. We want to allow them to regroup and regain strength.”

Thirdly, severing the connection between Gaza and Lebanon, “which Hamas opposes.”Report here

The Israeli Security Cabinet’s decision to approve the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon was heavily influenced by the U.S. commitment to end its unofficial restrictions on weapons and military equipment – limitations that had impacted military operations and resulted in IDF casualties. Washington is now pushing ahead with a $680 million arms sales package to Israel, which includes thousands of joint direct attack munition kits and hundreds of small-diameter bombs.
On Tuesday, P.M. Netanyahu listed the need to replenish weapons stocks as one of the reasons for the ceasefire in Lebanon. “It is no secret that there have been big delays in weapons and munitions deliveries.” Reports here and here

And see Comment & Opinion below.

HIZBOLLAH’S WAR AGAINST ISRAEL

Pre-ceasefire

Hizbullah fired 250 rockets at Israel on Sunday in one of the largest attacks in months. The IDF shot down most of the rockets, but there were some direct hits. Several people were wounded in Petah Tikva, Haifa, and Kfar Blum. Report here

Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks on northern Israel seriously injured two elderly people and a soldier on Monday. Report here

The IDF announced that it bombed Hizbullah’s largest precision-guided missile production site in an underground compound in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley shortly before the ceasefire went into effect. The IDF said Iranian operatives worked alongside Hizbullah at the site near the Syrian border.Report here

The IDF discovered gas masks, chemical materials, and sedatives in the possession of Hizbullah operatives two months ago in Lebanon, suggesting that they had intended to use chemical weapons to abduct Israeli soldiers and civilians. Report here

For the first time in 18 years IDF troops carried out operations in the area of the Litani River in Lebanon. They raided numerous terror infrastructures, engaged in close-quarters combat and demolished dozens of launchers and thousands of rockets and missiles.
Report here

Last Friday, four Italian UN peacekeepers were wounded by rockets in Lebanon Friday fired by Hezbollah,Report here

SYRIA

A recent IDF airstrike in Syria killed a senior Hezbollah commander who helped plan an Iranian-led attack that killed five US soldiers in Iraq in 2007. Report here

The IDF has been operating against Hezbollah’s weapons smuggling unit in Syria to prevent Iranian arms from reaching the terror group in Lebanon.Report here

HAMAS

According to a senior Israeli official, Hamas’s general refusal to cut a deal with Israel is what is holding back a return of Israeli hostages…The current government strategy is to split Hamas from controlling food and other humanitarian aid by introducing private U.S. contractors into Gaza to transport the supplies. Report here

Hamas deploys a special unit to maintain control over international aid through violence.Report here

IRANIAN NUCLEAR THREAT

Iran will activate “a noticeable number of new and advanced centrifuges of different types,” state news agency IRNA reported last Friday. The move was in response to the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose board passed a resolution Thursday ordering Iran to urgently improve its cooperation with the agency.Report here

EASTERN FRONT

The IDF and Israel Security Agency said Wednesday they had thwarted an effort to smuggle Iranian weapons to terror operatives in the area of Jenin in the West Bank. The shipment, sent by the IRGC, included “33 improvised Claymore explosives, wireless activation systems for Claymore explosives, six RPG-7 launchers, three 107mm rockets, 24 RPG-18 and RPG-22 rockets, 40 standard large Claymore explosives including detonators, two 60mm mortar barrels, 20 60mm mortar shells, six long M16 rifles and one M4 rifle with ammunition, seven Hunter sniper rifles and 37 pistols.” Report here

EGYPTIAN BORDER

The IDF reported on Wednesday that it intercepted a drone carrying four rifles and hundreds of rounds of ammunition across the Egyptian border.Report here

IRAQ

Officials in the pro-Iranian Islamic Resistance in Iraq told Hizbullah-affiliated Al-Akhbar that their militias will continue their military activities against Israel in the coming days, following the ceasefire in Lebanon.Report here

INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT (ICC)

Israel is to appeal the ICC’s decision to issue arrest warrants against PM Netanyahu and former defence minister Gallant.Report here

And see Comment & Opinion articles below

COVID VACCINE

Researchers at Tel Aviv University and the University of Lisbon have developed an effective, inexpensive and simple COVID-19 vaccine that can be stored at room temperature and administered as a nasal spray. The nano-vaccine proved effective against all major variants of COVID-19, including Beta, Delta, Omicron and others. Currently, most vaccines use mRNA technology for COVID-19. Report here

SOLIDARITY

After months of advocating for Israel and standing up against antisemitism, Australian Nova Peris, Olympic gold medallist, former parliamentarian and Aboriginal activist, travelled to Israel for the first time in March (inter alia) visiting kibbutzim invaded on October 7 and meeting families of hostages.

Reflecting on her trip she said “How do people say that Jews are the colonizers? I saw Hebrew written 3,000 years ago in the City of David. Truth is fundamental to [Jewish] existence; I couldn’t sit silent on this in my capacity as someone who has a voice in Australia — particularly as an Indigenous person.” Report here

FOOD-TECH

The Israeli foodtech company Imagindairy uses advanced precision fermentation technology to produce milk proteins identical in taste, texture and nutritional values to cow’s milk proteins but without dependence on animals. The company has received approval to market its products in Israel.Report here

THE UK

The National Union of Journalists (NUJ) has confirmed that some BBC journalists have resigned from the union after it distributed directives from the Trades Union Congress (TUC) urging workers to dress in Palestinian colours, or wear a keffiyeh, as part of a Day of Action for Palestine today Nov. 28… One BBC staffer said the suggestion was a clear breach of the BBC’s commitment to impartial reporting. Report here

SPORT

Israeli wheelchair dancer Tomer Margalit with her dance partner, Orel Chalaf won the Para Dance Sport European Championship held in Prague. Their routine, set to Eden Golan’s Eurovision song “Hurricane, was dedicated to the release of the hostages. Article here

COMMENT & OPINION

CEASEFIRE

WSJ Editorial: Israeli hard power has secured Hizbullah’s agreement to abandon Hamas. Iran’s terrorist proxy in Lebanon resumed firing rockets at Israel on Oct. 8, 2023, and it had pledged to continue until Israel conceded to Hamas’s demands. The ceasefire deal marks Hizbullah and Iran’s retreat under fire. The real achievement of the war is a change in the balance of power.
Hizbullah had been deterring Israel, which feared that Hizbullah might launch thousands of missiles a day and topple buildings in Tel Aviv. But once Israel took the initiative with air strikes and daring sabotage, Hizbullah couldn’t deliver on its threats.
Israel killed Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah and tore through its chain of command. Its ground invasion cleared weapons stores and tunnels in the border villages. With Iran newly vulnerable and Hamas isolated in Gaza, Israel has fought through to its strongest strategic position in at least a decade. Editorial here (paywall)

Max Boot: While Israel can certainly inflict heavy losses on its foes, it cannot simply vanquish them and, instead, will have to live with adversaries on its borders in the hope that it can deter them from further hostilities in the near future. None of this is to deny that Israel has inflicted major blows against Hizbullah…
But it is clear that Hizbullah, while substantially degraded as a military force, is far from defeated…Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies reports that Hizbullah has lost 2,450 fighters out of 40,000 to 50,000.
Hizbullah undoubtedly has tens of thousands of missiles and fighters left with which to rebuild its military capacity – and it is likely to return to southern Lebanon, next to the Israeli border – no matter what the ceasefire agreement states. As soon as Lebanese refugees return to southern Lebanon, Hizbullah fighters will be in their midst. Trying to prevent Hizbullah from rebuilding in the region would require Israeli soldiers to occupy southern Lebanon themselves.
Israel can live with Hizbullah fighters on its frontiers as long as they are deterred from actually attacking Israel. The 2006 ceasefire agreement did buy 17 years of peace, and, if the current one does the same, it will be an important achievement – one that will allow more than 60,000 Israeli refugees to return to their homes and rebuild their communities in northern Israel. Article here (paywall)

Ron Ben-Yishai: while the new Lebanon agreement holds diplomatic value, it is unlikely to prevent Hezbollah’s entrenchment. Only proactive Israeli military operations, with or without committee approval, can transform this deal from a symbolic gesture—like the failed Resolution 1701—into an effective arrangement.Article here

Benny Avni: Northern Israelis are sceptical about returning home safely. One predicted that Hizbullah “will try to return to the border, the IDF will try to prevent it, and nothing will change for Northern Israelis, including me.” Article here (paywall)

Dr. Rodger Shanahan: Yet, the idea that Hizbullah will withdraw to north of the Litani River and take its weapons with it while the Lebanese military protects the border with Israel ignores the fact that much of Hizbullah actually lives south of the Litani River and will simply return to their homes and rebuild.
No one can deny that achieving a ceasefire is a good thing. But the reality is that this is simply likely to be another, albeit extended, operational pause in the ongoing conflict between Israel and its enemies in the region. Israel won the tactical battle in Lebanon, but the strategic realities haven’t changed.Article here (paywall)

Richard Kemp: The blow that this ceasefire represents to the Iranian regime is every bit as great. Hizbullah, painstakingly built up at enormous expense over 40 years, was their flagship, the most important part of the “ring of fire” put in place to burn Israel to death. A ceasefire was seen by the ayatollahs as the best way of salvaging something from the wreckage.
Tehran is on the cusp of achieving a nuclear capability to threaten Israel, the Middle East and the world. But Iran is now exposed more than ever before. The primary purpose of Hizbullah’s massive arsenal of rocketry was to deter against an Israeli or U.S. military assault on Tehran’s nuclear weapons programme.
That deterrent is largely gone and the IDF substantially destroyed Iran’s air defences in its retaliatory strikes in October. That means Israel is in an unprecedented position to put a stop to the Iranian menace. Article here (paywall)

Avi Issacharoff : While Hizbullah spokesmen may claim victory, the reality is clear to most Lebanese citizens. Hizbullah suffered a devastating defeat in the recent conflict…Israel had allowed Hizbullah to grow unchecked over the past 17 years without decisive action to stop its military buildup.
After the ceasefire, Hizbullah will undoubtedly resume its reconstruction efforts. Will Israel act decisively to prevent Hizbullah’s next military buildup? Article here

Lior Ben Ari: Hizbullah has faced a severe blow over the last year. However, it has no intention of disappearing, especially not from Lebanon’s political arena.
Nor will it cease its military activities. These will continue covertly in the months following any agreement.
Even if Hizbullah has suffered a significant setback, its ideology remains unchanged and it’s already planning its next major attack.
The Lebanese Army, which is supposed to oversee the implementation of UN Resolution 1701, is neither capable nor willing to assert its authority.
Nearly half of the Lebanese Army is made up of Shiites who have no interest in disarming Hizbullah.
In truth, no Lebanese body is capable of confronting Hizbullah.Article here

THE UNITED NATIONS

WSJ Editorial: On Wednesday, the UN will refuse to renew the contract of Alice Wairimu Nderitu, the Kenyan who is the Special Advisor on the Prevention of Genocide. She is being dismissed because she has stood firm in her belief that Israel’s war with Hamas isn’t genocide…
Establishing a pattern of violence as a genocide requires demonstrating intent. Israel’s campaign of self-defence doesn’t qualify.
In its war against Hamas, Israel’s strategy is intended to dismantle a terrorist regime, not eliminate an ethnic group.
Israel has gone to great lengths to minimize Palestinian civilian casualties, even as Hamas uses civilians as shields so their deaths can be used as propaganda.
Ms. Nderitu’s refusal to endorse a lie in service of a political agenda has been a profile in courage. Editorial here (paywall)

THE ICC arrest warrants

A plethora of articles highly critical of the ICC, many of which are behind paywalls.

These items can be read in full:

Mark Goldfeder: On Israel the ICC Is Wrong on the Law – and the Facts.

Extract: It is not enough to demonstrate that civilians suffered based on decisions Israel made while fighting Hamas; the prosecutor must show that Israel acted with the deliberate aim of starving civilians as a method of warfare. This is patently untrue. Israel has made extensive efforts to provide humanitarian aid to Gaza, even under the extraordinary challenge of Hamas’s systematic theft and weaponization of such supplies. Article here

Anne Herzberg: “There has never been a conflict where a party that was subject to an invasion, missile threats from seven fronts, which has twice faced the largest ballistic missile attacks in history, where 1200 of its citizens were massacred, hundreds of hostages taken, and yet has taken the most extensive measures ever seen to allow for humanitarian aid to enter into enemy territory.”Interview here

Amb. Alan Baker: Israel has sound legal justification in international humanitarian law for all its actions, as has been acknowledged by leading military experts and as is borne out by accurate statistics and footage. Article here

Neville Teller : Israel’s case… was convincingly placed before (the judges) on August 5 by Dr. Rafael Bardaji on behalf of the High Level Military Group (HLMG), an association of military leaders and officials from NATO and other democratic countries. It tore Khan’s case to shreds…

The judges of the ICC have not only ignored compelling evidence from an impeccable source that challenges the charges brought by their prosecutor, but they have misdirected themselves as to the court’s competence to act against the leaders of a democratic state with a fully functioning judicial system of its own. Article here

Alon Tal: The decision…ignores Israel’s enormous efforts to minimize civilian harm during the Gaza War, as well as the dominant role of Hamas in sabotaging humanitarian aid and using innocent Palestinians as human shields.Article here

Paywalled articles

Dr. Yuan Yi Zhu: The process was compromised from the very beginning, when the ICC prosecutor, Karim Ahmad Khan, convened a “Panel of Experts in International Law” to provide support for his decision to seek the warrants. The panel’s entire membership was selected by Khan, which raised concerns about its impartiality.
As Lord Macdonald, the former DPP, pointed out in September 2024, at least two of the Panel’s members had publicly accused Israel of international crimes beforehand, while at least two others had personal links to the prosecutor…
Even more troubling is the fact that the Court had no jurisdiction at all to issue these warrants. A fundamental principle of international law is that a state is not bound to the jurisdiction of an international court unless it has agreed to do so. But Israel, like three of the UN’s five permanent members, has chosen to not join the ICC, as is its sovereign prerogative, so the ICC does not have jurisdiction over its nationals.
The writer is a senior fellow at Policy Exchange and an assistant professor of international relations and international law at Leiden University. Article here (paywall)

The Times Editorial: Legal Fiction: The ICC’s arrest warrants for Netanyahu & Gallant falsely equate them with the terrorists of Hamas. Editorial here (paywall)

D.Tel Editorial: The ICC decision raises worrying questions for other democratic countries – including the UK – that could find themselves engaged in conflict. It compromises the ability of democracies to prevail over their enemies if their military operations cause civilian casualties.Editorial here (paywall)

The Lord Austin of Dudley (Ian Austin): The only crimes against humanity have been those committed by Hamas, which deliberately sought to kill as many Israelis as possible, and makes no distinction between combatants and civilians….Israel is at the frontline of a war against Tehran and its proxy forces, but this is a conflict which threatens the UK and the entire west.Article here (paywall)

Paul Nuki : A more powerful challenge to the court’s legitimacy may come from the US…the White House said “The United States has been clear that the ICC does not have jurisdiction over this matter.”Article here (paywall)

Natasha Hausdorff: It (the judgment) is an unconscionable attack on the inherent right of self-defence that other democratic states may well seek to exercise against similar fundamentalist terrorist organizations in the future.Article here (paywall)

Stephen Daisley: Not only is there no evidence that Israel is denying the Palestinians food as a military tactic, there is copious evidence to the contrary: 1.1 million tonnes, to be precise. That is how much humanitarian aid, 79 per cent of it food, has been transferred into Gaza since Oct 7 2023 under Israeli supervision.Article here (paywall)

THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY (P.A.)

Bassam Tawil: For the past three decades, leaders of the PA and Hamas have systematically targeted political activists, journalists, social media users, students, professors and human rights activists as part of an ongoing campaign to silence critics and deter others from speaking out against the lack of democracy and freedom of speech.

This abuse has transformed the PA-controlled areas in the West Bank and the Hamas-run Gaza Strip into Palestinian dictatorships similar to those that have long existed in most Arab countries. In addition, it has resulted in the suppression of the emergence of new leaders capable of leading the Palestinians towards security, stability and prosperity. Article here