Israel Update 18.6.26

IRAN

An initial agreement by the U.S. and Iran to halt their war grants Iran major economic benefits while delaying the thorniest areas of disagreement. The agreement lifts the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and grants Iran waivers to begin exporting its oil even before the negotiation of a final agreement on its nuclear programme, giving Iran a critical economic lifeline. The MoU also commits the U.S. to temporarily lifting banking restrictions to help facilitate Iran’s oil trade. Report here (paywall)

Memorandum of Agreement (MOU) 14 point text here

Trump on Wednesday defended letting Iran maintain its large arsenal of ballistic missiles when discussing the deal. Report here

CIA Director John Ratcliffe told President Trump and other senior officials that evidence gathered by U.S. intelligence agencies raises serious doubts about Iran’s willingness to make the nuclear concessions the U.S. is seeking in any final deal, according to three sources.Report here

Iran declared it had won “great victories” over the U.S. with Iranian officials portraying the deal as a military and political triumph rather than a diplomatic compromise. Report here

Israel’s US Ambassador said “It seems that Lebanon has been included in an agreement with Iran, and we think that that’s unnecessary and unhelpful…The [U.S.] administration was crystal clear that this agreement has nothing to do with our withdrawal from south Lebanon. We’re not going to withdraw from south Lebanon, and the madmen of Tehran have no business poking their nose into Lebanon…The Lebanese want the Iranian IRGC out of there. They want Hizbullah out.”
“Israel is in south Lebanon to protect its people, like any self-respecting country would do….The people we’ve killed are Hizbullah terrorists. We don’t target civilians.” Report here

The vast majority of top IDF and Mossad officials oppose the emerging Iran nuclear deal as insufficient in light of the “blood and treasure” invested and the threats confronting Israel.
The IDF and Mossad had hoped for progress on the issues of ballistic missiles and terrorist proxies, which they have had to deal with on a daily basis for years, but these issues have been left out of the deal.
Many senior Mossad officials and some IDF officers believe it is important to keep Iran under sanctions until the regime stops threatening Israel or until it is toppled. Report here

Israeli officials on Wednesday privately described the U.S.-Iran agreement as disappointing and problematic, identifying several clauses as particularly troubling. Among these the MoU states that the U.S. Treasury Department will immediately allow exports of Iranian crude oil, effectively providing Tehran with billions of dollars before it makes significant concessions and giving Tehran financial breathing room.
The MoU also states that existing enriched uranium stockpiles would be diluted in Iran and would not be removed from the country.Report here

U.S. Vice President JD Vance said on Monday: “The agreement is fundamentally built around a two-step verification process. We say to the Iranians, you are welcome to have access to an unsanctioned economy, you’re welcome to be re-invited into the world economy, but only if you honour the commitments that you make in this agreement. So that’s the leverage point, and simultaneously, the enforcement mechanism we have over their nuclear programme.”
This agreement says “to the Iranians… if you’re willing to give up that (nuclear) programme long-term, if you’re willing to accept the inspections and verification regime that’s necessary to give us the confidence you’re never going to have a nuclear weapon, then we want you to be a prosperous country and we will re-invite you into the community of nations.” Report here

Footnote:

The IAF chief confirmed that a major strike against Iran was called off “one hour before departure” on June 8^th. Report here

THE WAR AGAINST HEZBOLLAH IN LEBANON

IDF Master Sgt. (res.) Alexander Filin, 29, was killed and seven other soldiers were wounded in southern Lebanon on Wednesday when a Hizbullah IED exploded near a team of soldiers patrolling near the Litani River. In a separate incident two Hizbullah explosive drones wounded five soldiers in southern Lebanon. Report here

PM Netanyahu told President Trump that Israel does not consider itself bound by the Lebanon clause in the emerging agreement with Iran, Israeli officials said, making clear that Jerusalem will not accept any arrangement that limits its freedom to act against Hizbullah. Israeli officials said the IDF will remain in the positions it currently holds and will continue operating to foil threats from Hizbullah, including destroying terror infrastructure and responding to any attack on Israel.
Israel says it must retain freedom to strike Hizbullah targets in order to protect northern communities and prevent the group from rebuilding its forces near the border.Report here

U.S. President Donald Trump is “normalizing fire at Israel,” an Israeli official said on Sunday, as Washington pressed Israel to avoid responding if Iran launches missiles in retaliation for an Israeli strike in Beirut. The IDF struck in Beirut’s Dahieh district after Hizbullah launched drones toward Israel. Trump described the Hizbullah attack as “very small and meaningless” because no one was hurt.
Israeli officials said the U.S. position was unfair and did not reflect the way an ally should be treated. They said Washington was ignoring repeated Hizbullah violations of Israeli sovereignty and tying Israel’s hands in the face of ongoing fire. Officials in Jerusalem said Trump had demanded that Netanyahu not only halt fire in Lebanon but also begin a withdrawal. Netanyahu rejected the demands.
Israel also pushed back against U.S. claims that the Dahieh strike was intended to disrupt a pending agreement with Iran. Israeli officials said drones fired into Israel reached near the western Galilee community of Shlomi. An Israeli official noted that “when the Iranians downed an American helicopter, Trump ordered a harsh response even though there were no casualties.” Report here

Senior Hizbullah commander Ali Mussa Daqduq, mastermind of a January 2007 kidnapping and murder of five American soldiers in Iraq, was killed in an Israeli strike in southern Lebanon on Friday. U.S. forces jailed Daqduq in 2007 and handed him over to Iraq in 2011, which assured the U.S. he would be prosecuted, but Iraq acquitted Daqduq and released him in 2012. Report here

Fighting between Israel and Hizbullah in Lebanon eased but did not halt entirely on Monday after the U.S. signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran. The IDF said Hizbullah had fired several rockets at Israeli troops in southern Lebanon, as well as an anti-tank missile and several mortars. The IDF also confirmed striking Hizbullah operatives who “posed a threat” to its forces. Report here

In the last few weeks, the IDF has advanced past the Litani River in Lebanon and is now approaching the Zaharani River. Defence officials believe that if Hizbullah could be cleared out south of the Zaharani River, the threat to Israel’s northern border villages would shrink dramatically.Report here

Lt.-Col. B., 37, has seen months of continuous fighting and deep ground operations in Lebanon. He described the destruction of Hizbullah’s underground complex beneath Beaufort Ridge, north of the Litani River, in an area used to attack Israeli communities in northern Israel. It had been “an underground city” with “an insane amount of weapons and huge warehouses containing hundreds of explosive devices”, food and water supplies lasting months, operating rooms and a fully equipped underground hospital.
Maps outlining northern Israel communities that border Lebanon were also discovered. Reports here & here

GAZA

Gazans are preparing for public protests against Hamas; the “ June 26 Revolution” in Gaza is rapidly gaining support from people both inside and outside Gaza, despite the danger posed by speaking out. Last week, a UN investigation reported that Hamas and police units had beaten, maimed and publicly executed dozens of Gazans in the last two years. Reports here & here (paywall)

THE UK

Four British pro-Palestinian activists were sentenced for a 2024 raid on a factory operated by Israeli defence firm Elbit which caused more than £1m damage, with the judge giving longer terms after determining there was a “terrorism connection.”
One who hit a police officer with a sledgehammer, breaking her back, was sentenced to seven years and eight months. Two others were sentenced to five years, while the 4^th was sentenced to four years and eight months. Report here

The Court of Appeal has ruled that the UK Home Office decision to ban Palestine Action under anti-terror laws was lawful.

“The court has found that Palestine Action has carried out acts of terrorism, celebrated those who have taken part in those acts and promoted the use of violence. It is not an ordinary protest or civil disobedience group, and its actions are not consistent with democratic values and the rule of law.” Since the ban, more than 3,000 people have been arrested for supporting Palestine Action and more than 200 have been charged with terrorism offences. Report here (paywall)

A UK court has allowed insurance company Allianz to pursue a civil lawsuit worth nearly £300,000 against six Palestine Action activists who in Oct. 2024 targeted and damaged 10 Allianz UK offices. Report here

Lord Austin decried Parliament’s obsession with Israel. Short FB video here

SOMALILAND

The Somaliland President and First Lady Fardowsa, accompanied by a senior delegation, arrived in Israel on Sunday for a landmark state visit.

Israel and Somaliland formally established diplomatic relations in Dec 2025 and the President opened Somaliland’s embassy in Jerusalem. Report here

UNWRA (UN agency for Palestinian Refugees)

UNWRA said it has fired 70 employees in Gaza “to mitigate safety and security risks for the refugees”. Israel has repeatedly alleged and shown evidence that UNWRA employees were actively involved in terror groups, and some participated in the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led invasion and slaughter. Israel has also shown repeated use of UNRWA infrastructure for terror activities and provided evidence that the agency’s schools incited hatred of Israel and glorification of attacks against Israelis. Report here

DEFENCE

The Indian Army has selected Israel-based Meprolight’s MEPRO X6 telescopic sight as the dedicated daytime optic for its Negev light machine guns (LMG), concluding a multi‑year evaluation process aimed at boosting long‑range engagement capability across frontline units.Report here

Morocco used an advanced loitering munition manufactured by BlueBird Aero Systems, an Israeli defence contractor, to eliminate a senior Polisario Front commander in the Western Sahara where conflict has simmered for half a century, as the separatist Polisario Front operates primarily from refugee camps located across the Algerian border. Report here

MEDICAL RESEARCH

A breakthrough by researchers in Israel has paved the way for a vaccine against ovarian cancer.

A team at the Weizmann Institute of Science has shown for the first time that so-called B cells in the body’s immune system can attack the cancer.

Their research, published last week in the journal Immunity, opens the door to a therapeutic vaccine that could prevent a relapse in women who have already been treated for ovarian cancer. Report here

NEW REHAB HOSPITAL

The Jusidman family in Mexico has announced a donation toward the establishment of what will be the largest rehabilitation hospital in Israel, which will include 540 inpatient beds, a trauma clinic, an imaging institute, a hydrotherapy pool, advanced rehabilitation centres, and a medical research and development incubator.Report here

WORLD CUP

A 12-year-old Israeli girl who suffers from a rare genetic disease was honoured Tuesday with carrying the ball into the MetLife Stadium in New Jersey for the FIFA World Cup match between France and Senegal. Ayala Ohana is one of 104 children from all over the world who were selected by Korean automaker Kia, a partner of the soccer governing body, to deliver the ball to referees before each match. Report here

AWARD-WINNING PHOTO

A photograph taken by Dr Tom Shlesinger, a marine ecologist, coral reef researcher and underwater nature photographer, has been selected as one of the 20 most iconic images in the history of the prestigious World Shootout underwater photography competition. View here

COMMENT & OPINION

The US/Iran MOU (Memorandum of Understanding)

The Times of London Editorial :

Nothing has been agreed about Tehran’s quest for a nuclear arsenal, and not a word has been uttered about the potency of its missiles, their stockpiles and production. Iran remains a source of instability to the Middle East, a menace not only to the freedom of navigation but to any power that seeks to restrain its geopolitical ambitions.
Iran demanded an “immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.” Israel’s northern townships remain under bombardment from Hizbullah and Mr. Netanyahu is right to reserve to his country the right of self-defence. Israel’s intentions in Lebanon are plain: it wants a stronger Lebanese government capable of resisting the encroachment of Hizbullah. It therefore wants the U.S. to sunder links between Iran and the terror group.
But Iran has no interest in a strong government in Beirut. Its aim is not only to sap U.S. support for Israel but ultimately to achieve a complete U.S. military withdrawal from the Middle East. Having survived, at high cost, its war with the U.S. and Israel, and having chastised its Gulf neighbours, Iran now wants to revive its dream of becoming the region’s leader. The negotiating process with the U.S. has instilled in the Iranian regime the delusion that it is the winner, able to address the U.S. as an equal. Editorial here (paywall)

JPost Editorial :

The U.S.-Iran MOU calls for an end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon. Previous understandings among Israel, Lebanon, and the U.S. reportedly conditioned a ceasefire on Hizbullah withdrawing from southern Lebanon and disarming, with the Lebanese Armed Forces entering designated areas as the IDF withdrew. That was the correct direction: strengthen the Lebanese state, weaken Hizbullah, and separate Lebanon’s future from Tehran’s agenda.
By placing Lebanon inside the Iran track, the U.S.-Iran framework effectively ties Hizbullah’s fate to Tehran’s leverage. That is precisely the danger: Israel’s northern border becomes another bargaining chip in a deal whose central parties are not the people who live under Hizbullah’s rockets.
Israel should support any serious effort to turn Lebanon into a sovereign state capable of enforcing its own territory. But hope is not a security mechanism. A ceasefire that leaves Hizbullah armed, politically emboldened, and protected by Iranian patronage is not a solution. Israel cannot accept less than dismantling Hizbullah. Editorial here

Wall St Journal Editorial:
To reopen the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump is accepting Iran’s promises merely to negotiate over its nuclear programme…Those who say Trump had no alternative ignore that the U.S. blockade was squeezing Iran more by the day, while Iran’s blockade was leaking.
The memorandum of understanding would defer most matters of the nuclear programme to 60 more days of talks, with oil and other sanctions relief along the way in exchange for diplomatic progress. This linkage is crucial, but pushing off the most difficult nuclear issues in talks with “dishonourable people” who don’t deal “in good faith,” as the President called them on Friday, doesn’t inspire confidence. If the regime won’t agree to dismantle its nuclear programme now, why would it do so after weeks of oil exports and other relief?
Iran’s new leaders are likely to conclude that Mr. Trump has no desire for more conflict, and they will negotiate accordingly. Congress should scrutinize any final agreement made with Iran – and reject it if it props up a regime that still says “death to America.” Editorial here (paywall)

David Horowitz (Editor Times of Israel) Trump’s deal is a catastrophic capitulation to Iran’s aggressors and leaves Israel vulnerable and constrained.

The deal manifestly empowers and finances a mass-murdering regime. It elevates the Islamic Republic to a regional powerhouse. It abandons the Iranian people to whom Trump promised that help was on its way. And it directly endangers and constrains Israel, with terminology that binds Israel to a ceasefire it had no part in negotiating.Article here

David Ignatius: The framework announced Sunday is an intermediate step – one that could ultimately prove a dismal failure.
In diplomatic terms, this agreement is an exit ramp from a costly and unpopular war, not a victory parade.
There are more question marks than answers: The details of limiting Tehran’s nuclear programme haven’t been negotiated yet…
And most worrying of all, the regime remains in power in Tehran, able to threaten its Arab neighbours and Israel. Article here (paywall)

Sagiv Steinberg: The agreement represents a dramatic shift in the Middle East’s strategic balance. Iran stood up to the world’s strongest power and emerged with an agreement enhancing its regional influence across the Persian Gulf.
Gulf states, clear American allies, now understand that Iranian bullying ultimately pays off… Beijing has drawn a clear lesson from the Iran episode: the U.S. does not necessarily have to be defeated on the battlefield. It can be pressured, and in some cases strategically outmanoeuvered, through economic leverage. Europeans and Japan are rushing to align with the agreement. Europe continues to believe that money and economic concessions will protect it from Iranian terror.
The deal projects American weakness that encourages Iran’s proxies to recover and strengthen. This is another pause in a long and exhausting war. Iranian intentions remain unchanged and the challenge posed by Iran remains unfinished. Article here

Eldad Shavit: The president needed an exit. Now he is presenting it as a victory. But most of the difficult issues have not been resolved.
The nuclear program has not been dismantled. The fate of the enriched uranium remains disputed. Oversight is unclear. The 60-day negotiation window that is now supposed to open does not guarantee a breakthrough. It is more likely to become a mechanism for delay and buying time. Trump, having already declared success, will find it difficult to quickly return to a full-scale war. The more likely scenario is prolonged management of indecision.
Israel’s main concern now is freedom of action. Any Israeli operation against Iranian facilities, senior officials or strategic assets could be seen in Washington as an attempt to torpedo the agreement Trump is presenting as a personal achievement. In Lebanon, Israel may retain greater room to maneuver. But any significant strike in Dahieh or against Hizbullah will be examined through one question: Does it endanger the understandings with Iran? Article here

Isabel Kershner: Israel waged two wars against Iran in the past year. Now Israel, which had not been a party to the Trump administration’s negotiations with Iran, is being left out of the potential peace. An Israeli briefed on the deal with Iran listed Israel’s main problems with the proposal: There are no clear answers regarding the treatment of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, and not enough curbs on Iran’s nuclear programme. Instead of creating the conditions for the collapse of the Iranian government, the deal would allow funds to start flowing back into its coffers.
The deal lays out no clear mechanism for forcing Iran to halt its support for its proxy forces.Article here (paywall)

Meir Ben Shabbat:Any deal with Iran is worse than the alternatives, because it establishes the legitimacy of the extremist regime and gives it survival, hope, and resources for rehabilitation. Opening the Strait of Hormuz to Iranian oil exports will allow Tehran to earn millions every day. Added to that are the billions expected to flow to Iran once the memorandum of understanding enters into force.
Including the Lebanese front in the framework of the deal is a gift to Iran. Not only will it ensure a space of immunity for Hizbullah, but it will also gain recognition of its status as a player in the Lebanese front. If the expectation was to dismantle Iran’s hold over its proxies, this agreement actually tightens it.
The nuclear issues will be discussed only at a later stage, when the regime is no longer in distress and when the effectiveness of U.S. levers of military and economic pressure will be lower…Washington’s conduct surrounding the agreement will project weakness and affect the U.S.’s standing in the Middle East. Article here

Jake Wallis Simons: Meanwhile, Iran has been secretly sealing off its subterranean cache of highly enriched uranium. This will make securing the material, America’s main objective, immeasurably more difficult, even if an agreement is signed.
The regime has always had the same beliefs. Apocalyptic war against the West will cause a Messianic figure to emerge from invisibility and lead the Shia faithful to global domination in the endtimes. That remains its reality. You can’t do a deal with that. Article here (paywall)

Michael Oren: Israel Must Place Its Security First.

The Iranians have conditioned their agreement with the U.S. on an end to Israel’s efforts to defend the north against Hizbullah attacks, even to withdraw IDF troops from southern Lebanon. This will confront Israeli leaders with an excruciating choice: either abandon the north or risk a major clash with Washington. Article here

Alternatives

Lt.-Col. (ret.) Stephen D. Cook:
Iran has treated international commitments as instruments of convenience, complying when under acute pressure and accelerating forbidden activities when that pressure eases. Verification has always been the Achilles’ heel. Iran’s territory, history of undeclared facilities, and demonstrated ability to delay or obstruct inspectors make robust, real-time monitoring extraordinarily difficult.
Iran’s leadership has learned to play for time, calculating that U.S. policy coherence rarely survives a single presidential term. Any agreement that depends on consistent enforcement across future administrations asks for something the American political system has not delivered on Iran policy in decades.
A decisive and overt regime change campaign represents the alternative that confronts these realities directly. It does not rely on persuading Iran’s current leadership to abandon core strategic assets or on maintaining perfect verification against a determined cheater. Instead, it targets the source of the problem. We must weigh the risks of action against the mounting, compounding perils of inaction. Article here

Elliott Abrams:
The American agreement with Iran completely abandons the Iranian people…This (MOU) is a strategic error of the greatest importance. It’s obvious to Iranians, and should be to us, that the Islamic Republic is unreformable. Iran’s rulers are the people who murdered thousands of their fellow citizens in cold blood a few months ago and more recently struck at economic and civilian targets of all their Gulf Arab neighbours as well as Israel.
The only long-run solution to Iran’s aggression and repression is popular sovereignty. The new agreement will not change the Middle East because the Islamic Republic will always remain at the heart of the region’s violence and instability.Article here

Brig.-Gen. (res.) Jacob Nagel :Following the military campaign’s success and Iran’s unprecedented weakness, the U.S. should have continued its maximum-pressure campaign in Hormuz, expanded the naval blockade with an aerial component, and conducted extensive strikes against the regime’s main interests, while simultaneously holding discussions regarding a future settlement. Only sustained and credible military pressure, combined with an intensified blockade, may persuade the Iranian leadership to alter its behaviour. Article here