Israel Update 19.3.26

Covering the entirety of the current war in the Middle East is beyond the scope of this update.

This Update focusses mainly on events in Israel, hugely under-reported outside the country, followed by links to relevant comment & opinion pieces.

ATTACKS ON ISRAEL’S CIVILIANS

 

Few outside Israel have any idea of the intensity of current Iranian and Hezbollah attacks on civilian population centres with multiple missile and drone salvos day and night.

Today 19/3 missile sirens sounded in Israel six times between midnight and 8 a.m. Attacks have continued throughout today.

 

On 17 March, there were 11 waves of Iranian ballistic missile attacks against Israel. The Tel Aviv area sustained 6 attacks. In addition, 2 waves were recorded in the north, 2 in the south, and one in the Jerusalem area. Since the beginning of the campaign, 268 Iranian attack waves against Israel have been identified. They included 105 in the Tel Aviv area, 64 in the south, 60 in the north, and 39 in the Jerusalem area.
After the peak at the beginning of the campaign (44 attacks on Feb. 28 and 55 on March 1), the rate of attacks has averaged 10-11 per day. Since the beginning of the war, 15 civilians in Israel have been killed, and 3,604 people have been injured as a result of direct hits, interception debris, and secondary damage. Significant damage has been caused to residential buildings and civilian infrastructure. Report here

 

 

On 17 March, 43 attack waves by Hizbullah against Israel were identified, including 32 using rockets and missiles, 9 using UAVs, and 2 using anti-tank missiles. Most of the attacks were directed toward border communities and the Galilee. In addition, 17 attacks during the day targeted IDF forces operating in southern Lebanon.
Since Hizbullah joined the fighting on March 2, 565 attack waves against Israel have been identified, including 394 using rockets and missiles, 152 UAV attack waves, 18 anti-tank missile attacks, and one IED attack. While the daily pattern alternates between more intense and more moderate days, the average is 35 attack waves per day. Report here

 

 

Among the worst incidents:

Yesterday Wednesday:

A married couple in their 70s, Yaron and Ilana Moshe, were killed overnight when an Iranian missile with a cluster warhead struck the Tel Aviv area. They were found in a heavily damaged building in Ramat Gan, only a few metres from their safe room.

Reports of impact sites were received in Ramat Gan, Petah Tikva, Bnei Brak and Rosh HaAyin. Fire and rescue teams were sent to search several locations in central Israel after reports of impacts. Damage was also reported at Tel Aviv’s Savidor Central railway station.

On Wednesday night, a man was killed in central Israel after sustaining a head wound from missile shrapnel during a wave of Iranian missiles.

In the Hebron-area village of Beit Awwa, a cluster munition killed four Palestinian women.Another six women were reportedly wounded in the incident. Israeli defense officials offered the Palestinians assistance in handling the scene, but Palestinian authorities said they had brought the area under control. Reports hereherehere& here

 

 

Last Friday: 58 people were wounded after an Iranian ballistic missile struck the Israeli Bedouin town Zarzir. Iran had fired several ballistic missile salvos at Israel, some of which carried cluster munition warheads, causing damage at multiple sites, with impacts also resulting in fires. Reports here& here

 

On Saturday afternoon, submunitions from a cluster bomb munition in Eilat moderately injured a 12-year-old boy and lightly hurt two other people.  Report here

 

Iran fired seven missile salvos at Israel overnight Saturday and into Sunday wounding at least eight people. An Iranian missile had rained cluster bomb munitions across a swathe of central Israel. Report here

 

On Monday Iran fired several salvos of missiles at Israel, with multiple impacts damaging homes and a cluster bomb injuring one person. The Iranians launched five barrages at Israel after midnight and into the afternoon. Lir Itzik’s home was hit in Rishon Lezion, and she was trapped for a while in the safe room when walls collapsed on to the shelter’s door. Report here

 

Shrapnel from Iranian ballistic missiles intercepted over Israel fell Monday in Jerusalem’s Old City, including the Temple Mount compound, the Church of the Holy Sepulchre complex, and the Jewish Quarter.Report here (paywall)

 

On Tuesday, the IDF identified preparations for a large scale rocket barrage by Hizbollah and acted to thwart and disrupt as many launches as possible. Hizbollah launched a barrage of dozens of rockets at northern Israel and the northern West Bank Tuesday evening, one of which hit a home in Karmiel. They fired more than 100 rockets most of which were intercepted. Many launches do not cross the border. Report here& here

 

As at 18 March:

Around 3,500 residents of Israel have been forced to evacuate their homes since the start of the current war, and 10,946 claims for property damage have been submitted. Report here

TEL AVIV UNDER FIRE

 

 In Tel Aviv, which bears the brunt of Iranian drone and missile fire, people are woken several times each night by air-raid sirens.
Many who don’t have a special reinforced room in their home choose to camp in communal bunkers instead of scrambling to safety every time an alert goes off. Some have turned into little underground villages, with families living in tents and children’s toys strewn about…
Above ground, Israel’s cities still have the appearance of normalcy. At Tel Aviv’s Dizengoff Square, cafes are crowded with customers, ready on a moment’s notice to put down their coffee cups and file calmly toward the nearest bunker in the event of an air incursion. Report here (paywall)

IRAN’S CLUSTER BOMBS: THE NATURE OF THE THREAT

 

Israel’s home front is facing multiple ballistic missile barrages every day that frequently include cluster munitions, designed to split open in mid-air and scatter dozens of smaller “bomblets” over a wide area of several kilometres. When the smaller bombs, each weighing between three and five kg., explode, they cause severe damage ranging from the destruction of buildings and vehicles to causing fires and craters on the roads. Even if a missile is intercepted, large fragments from interceptors can fall and cause severe injury or property damage.

A ballistic missile  carrying a cluster warhead must be intercepted before the payload opens and releases its submunitions. Once that happens, the missile is no longer a single target, and the chance of stopping its full effect drops sharply.

(These weapons are banned under the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions.)

Report hereReport here

GULF STATES

 

Many Gulf Arab states are now urging the U.S. not to leave Iran able to threaten the Gulf’s oil lifeline and the economies that depend on it. “There is a wide feeling across the Gulf that Iran has crossed every red line with every Gulf country,” said Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Centre. “At first we defended them [Iran] and opposed the war. But once they began directing strikes at us, they became an enemy…”
As the war entered its third week, with Iran firing at U.S. bases and civilian targets across the Gulf, a Gulf source said the prevailing mood among leaders was that Trump should comprehensively degrade Iran’s military capacity. The alternative, the source said, was living under constant threat. Unless Iran was severely weakened, it would continue to hold the region to ransom. Report here

 

 Israel’s Ambassador to the U.S. said Tuesday that certain Gulf countries are using Israeli expertise in drone and missile interception against Iran, as they have faced more than 2,000 missiles and drones. ” We’ve extended our help to all the Gulf countries interested in receiving it and there are those who are enjoying our expertise in these areas right now.” Report here

IRAN WAR

 

Israel has continued to  target senior Iranian officials.

This week, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani was  killed by the IDF. Some saw him as the man running the Iranian regime since Ayatollah Khamenei was assassinated on Feb. 28.

Also Brig.-Gen. Golam Reza Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Basij militia, which has been heavily involved in violent domestic crackdowns, was assassinated alongside his deputy by the Israel Air Force in a strike in Tehran. Reports here& here

LEBANON

 

Ghassan Hasbani, a Christian MP, said he was fed up with Hizbullah sparking conflict in Lebanon. “Hizbullah started this by attacking Israel to protest the death of the Ayatollah, dragging Lebanon into a regional conflict it has nothing to do with”. On Friday, Israeli planes dropped leaflets calling on the Lebanese to disarm Hizbullah and contact Israeli intelligence to inform on the whereabouts of fighters. Report here (paywall)

 

Shiite Muslims in Lebanon who form Hizbullah’s base of political and popular support are increasingly furious with the militant group for dragging them into another war.
Several expressed bewilderment at the decision by Hizbullah’s leadership to attack Israel. Ghada, a Shiite woman who was still looking for a place to shelter in Beirut, said she always supported Hizbullah publicly. Now she questioned the point of trying to avenge the war against Iran, seeing no benefit for Tehran or the Lebanese people.Report here (paywall)

 

 

Israel’s Defence Minister Katz said Monday: “The IDF has begun a ground manoeuvre in Lebanon to remove threats and protect the (Israeli) residents of the Galilee and the north.” The IDF is to destroy terror infrastructure close to the border.

On Tuesday, the IDF has pushed more forces deeper into southern Lebanon to create an expanded buffer zone, as Hizbullah attacked towns in northern Israel with rockets and drones.
A senior officer told reservists “The expectation is that the war in the north and the efforts to eliminate and strike Hezbollah could last for weeks,”Reports herehere& here

 

 

INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE (ICJ)

 

The U.S. in a formal filing to the ICJ defended Israel against the charge of genocide over its Gaza campaign, arguing that Israel did not show “specific intent” to destroy a group in whole or in part, a requirement of the legal definition of genocide. “Civilian casualties, even widespread civilian casualties, are not necessarily probative of genocidal intent, particularly when they occur in the context of an armed conflict involving urban combat.”  Report here

GREECE

Greece is moving forward with the acquisition of Israeli air defence systems as part of the country’s Achilles Shield project, a multi-layered air, missile, and anti-drone defence network that will see a range of Israeli systems as key players. Report here

 

HEALTH-TECH

 

Jerusalem hosted Israel’s premier health-tech conference (March 17–18), showcasing breakthroughs in emergency medicine, ophthalmology and Tech-Bio.  New Israeli technologies for “hospital-at-home” and remote monitoring were a core focus, providing solutions for healthcare delivery during national emergencies. Conference details here

SPORT

 

The Israeli men’s national flag football team secured a spot for the 2026 World Championships in Düsseldorf, showcasing a 5th place finish in the European Championships.Report here

 

INADVERTENT INTERNET STAR

 

An unnamed young woman café staff member who appeared briefly behind PM Netanyahu in a video intended to quash rumours of his death became an unexpected internet star, with millions of viewers fixating on her cameo instead of his message. Reports here& here Video here (Hebrew)

 

COMMENT & OPINION

 

The Muslim World & Iran

 

Hamza Azhar Salam: There is an extraordinary dynamic playing out across the Muslim world: Instead of rallying behind Iran, attacked two weeks ago by the U.S. and Israel, it is turning against the Islamic State.
Last week, the UN Security Council adopted a Bahrain-sponsored resolution which explicitly condemned Iran’s missile and drone strikes on seven sovereign nations. Among the co-sponsors was Pakistan, the only nuclear-armed, Muslim-majority nation in the world.
The next day, the Pakistani Prime Minister flew to Jeddah to meet with the Saudi Crown Prince, where he expressed Islamabad’s “full solidarity and support” for Saudi Arabia in these “challenging times.”…  This war has permanently fractured any solidarity the Muslim world may have once felt towards Iran. Tehran’s actions have turned neighbours into adversaries and mediators into enemies. Article here (paywall)

 

Iran War

 

Muhanad Seloom (Assistant Professor of International Politics and Security at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies): When you look at what has actually happened to Iran’s principal instruments of power – its ballistic missile arsenal, its nuclear infrastructure, its air defences, its navy and its proxy command architecture – the picture is not one of U.S. failure. It is one of systematic, phased degradation.

Iranian ballistic missile launches have dropped by 90% (from 350 on Feb 28 to roughly 25 by March 14) while drone launches fell from 800 per day to just 75.
I see an adversary whose capacity to project power is collapsing in real time.

Much of the criticism of the U.S.-Israeli campaign focuses on its costs while treating the status quo ante as if it were cost-free. It was not. Tehran was less than two weeks away from enriching enough uranium for one nuclear bomb, according to U.S. intelligence assessments.
The regional environment that sustained Iran’s proxy architecture, including the grudging tolerance by Gulf states fearful of Iranian retaliation, is being replaced by active hostility. Qatar and Bahrain are arresting IRGC operatives.
The Iranian threat, if left unchecked, would have produced a nuclear-armed Iran capable of closing the Strait of Hormuz at will, surrounded by proxy forces that could hold the entire region hostage indefinitely. Article here

 

 

Dr. Dan Diker: The joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran represent a major strategic shift from containing Iran to actively preventing and dismantling the Islamic Republic’s military, nuclear, and terror infrastructure. The partnership created an unprecedented level of strategic alignment and operational cooperation between the U.S. and Israel.
Trump understood that the Palestinian issue has never been the engine fuelling Middle Eastern instability. Rather, the Iranian regime’s ideologically driven and religiously fuelled campaign has sought to dominate the region through proxy terror, nuclear extortion, and political subversion. Iran’s terror proxies are not expressions of political or territorial grievance. They are instruments of Tehran’s messianic and imperial ambitions on their way to regional and global dominance. Article here

 

 

Herb Keinon: The Oct. 7 massacre exposed the dangers of allowing hostile forces to accumulate capabilities just across Israel’s borders while assuming deterrence would hold. Israel’s decision to strike deep inside Iran reflects a willingness to accept immediate costs in order to prevent far greater dangers later, instead of delaying confrontation in hopes of avoiding escalation. In effect, Israel has moved from managing threats to dismantling them.Article here

 

 

Frida Ghitis: For Israelis, there’s nothing theoretical or remote about the danger. Israelis have listened to Iranian leaders for decades declare their intention to wipe Israel off the map and saw them install a clock in Tehran with a countdown to Israel’s destruction. They have watched as Tehran built a paramilitary ring of fire around Israel with Iran-created and/or sponsored proxy militias, terrorist groups openly committed to Israel’s destruction, launching thousands of rocket attacks, culminating in the Oct. 7, 2023, assault by Iran-funded Hamas.
Against this backdrop, Iran has been enriching uranium to a level that serves no other purpose than for building nuclear weapons, while developing an arsenal of missiles in preparation to take on Israel. Article here

 

 

 Dr. Eado Hecht: Israel has stated clearly from the start of the war with Iran that this will be a long war, because achieving the required results will take time. Israel has also understood from the start that it will suffer casualties and damage too. The minimum objective agreed to by Israel and the U.S. is the total destruction of Iran’s nuclear industry, surface-to-surface missile industry, and exploding drone industry. Beyond that, they are both gradually destroying Iran’s other military assets. Article here

 

 

Jonathan S. Tobin: Two weeks after the start of the U.S.-Israeli offensive against Iran, naysayers about the wisdom of the operation remain pervasive and loud. Yet, Iran was steadily rebuilding its nuclear programme with an imminent option to race to a bomb, expanding missile production, and continuing to orchestrate an “axis of resistance” dedicated to fomenting chaos and war. That’s more than enough to justify the risks that are an inevitable part of all wars. Even now it’s obvious that continuing a policy of kicking the can down the road that Trump’s predecessors chose would have been as colossal a mistake as even the costliest military blunder.

The arguments that say the U.S. would have been better off delaying action or even appeasing Iran ring false. The policy of enriching and empowering Tehran that was the consequence of the 2015 nuclear deal led to a stronger and more aggressive Islamist regime.

Letting a tyrannical regime ruled by religious fanatics bent on imposing their version of fanatical Islam on the Middle East and the rest of the world get a nuclear weapon would be a nightmare. And that would have been the inevitable result if the U.S. hadn’t prepared to act at some point in the near future. Article here

 

 

 

Wall St Journal: Editorial:
Iran is blocking the Strait of Hormuz to pressure President Trump to end the war prematurely, establishing an Iranian veto on energy flows and winning impunity in the future. Asked about the political cost of rising oil and gas prices, Mr. Trump replied, ‘I have to do what’s right. I can’t say that, ‘Gee, I don’t want to have any impact on oil prices for three or four weeks, or two months, and we’re going to let Iran have a nuclear weapon.'”
Armed with missiles and drones, Iran’s regime has closed international waters and attacked neighbours’ energy facilities. This is while Iran is relatively weak. Imagine how the regime would blackmail the world – and get away with it – if it were left to amass twice or three times the missiles, or nuclear weapons. Iran is giving Trump and Israel a reason to keep weakening the regime.Editorial here (paywall)

 

 

Jake Wallis Simons: Israelis understand what is at stake. Support for the campaign is high across their society, even as they huddle in bomb shelters amid the sound of explosions overhead. Gulf states, whose defensive strategy once involved maintaining a degree of friendship with Iran, are now urging the U.S. to hold its nerve and finish the job. The Iranian people are desperate for the regime to be overthrown…One of the most contemptible claims is that fighting Iran will only make it more dangerous. Forgive me, but the Iranian regime was pretty radical to begin with. This is the kind of thing we used to call appeasement. Article here (paywall)

 

 

Hamas

 

Khaled Abu Toameh: As international attention is focused on the Iran war, Hamas has stepped up its crackdown on the Palestinian people as part of its effort to reassert control in Gaza. Hamas has murdered, arrested, assaulted, or summoned for interrogation dozens of Palestinians for allegedly speaking out against it.
Gaza-born political activist Hamza Howidy wrote last week: “Since the war with Iran began, Hamas’s thugs have intensified their brutal, savage, barbaric campaign against Gaza’s own residents…”What makes this even worse than the suffering of those victims itself is the silence of the people who built entire careers screaming about Palestinian suffering. The same commentators, the same ‘human rights advocates,’ the same influencers, and the same media outlets that spent months positioning themselves as the moral conscience of the world, packaging Palestinian pain into clout, followers, and book deals, have gone completely dark….The Palestinians left to die under Hamas’s boots are apparently the wrong kind of Palestinians.” Article here

 

 

The US & Israel

 

Bret Stephens: The idea that crippling Iran’s capacity to threaten its neighbours is some sort of purely Israeli interest is belied by every Iranian missile or drone that falls on Dubai, Doha, Manama or Riyadh, not to mention U.S. and NATO military bases in the region. In Oct. 2024, Kamala Harris called Iran our “greatest adversary,” adding that one of her “highest priorities” as president would be to ensure that Iran never became a nuclear power.
What is true is that the U.S. is going to war with Israel, not for it. That’s something many Americans want: an ally that pulls its weight, shares the risk and contributes meaningfully to victory. This may be the first time since the Second World War that Washington has had an equal partner with which to share the burdens of war.
Israel, population 10 million, is behaving as an equal partner to America, population 342 million, in a war that the elected leadership of both countries believe is in their respective national interests. Whatever else that is, it isn’t the tail wagging the dog.  Article here (paywall)

 

 

Amb. Michael Oren: With none of America’s other allies willing to join the effort or even defend themselves against Iranian threats, and with NATO revealed as a toothless tiger, Israel is today America’s only dependable military ally.
Trump and Netanyahu conceived and coordinated the Iran operation as partners addressing a common intolerable threat.
Six American presidents viewed Iran as a national threat. The one who finally decided to act did not have to be dragged. Article here