Israel Update 19.6.25

Due to travel, I’m unable to circulate an Israel Update for the next 2 weeks. Hopefully back on July 9.

In these unprecedented times, for news updates I recommend

Israel News Highlights which sends WhatsApp messages around 3 times daily. To join, paste this link into WhatsApp:

New State of Israel website : Operation Rising Lion.

Operation Rising Lion was launched in response to the repeated failure of international efforts to deter Iran through peaceful means.
Israel views the enforcement of red lines as essential for preserving international security.
Israel remains committed to a diplomatic resolution – provided it leads to verifiable nuclear disarmament and an end to Iran’s aggression. Website here

CONTEXT TO ISRAELI PRE-EMPTIVE ACTION AGAINST IRAN

For decades, Iran’s Islamist regime has been threatening Israel with “annihilation” and has funded and armed its proxies, among them Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis to attack Israel, often with devastating consequences as on 7.10.23. All attempts to stop Iran developing nuclear weapons have failed. The US gave Iran a 60-day ultimatum back in April to come to the negotiating table but they prevaricated. Friday 13 June, when Israel launched its attacks was the 61^st day. Last week the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations. Iran has amassed enough 60%-enriched uranium to potentially make nine nuclear bombs, according to the IAEA. Report here

Iran’s covert enrichment and deceit left Israel no choice. Iran exploited diplomacy to secretly build weapons. Israel acted defensively to ensure survival as intel showed Iran’s intent to develop 10 nukes. video here

THE ISRAEL-IRAN WAR

Israel has been targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, weapons sites and critical energy infrastructure, aiming to degrade Iran’s ability to fund, fuel, and sustain its nuclear and military operations. The Iranian regime responded not with military countermeasures, but with waves of indiscriminate missile attacks on Israeli population centres Iranian ballistic missiles carry huge warheads, much more destructive than anything fired by Hamas & Hezbollah, and have caused multiple Israeli civilian casualties. To date Iran has killed at least 26 Israeli civilians and injured hundreds.

Since June 13, Iran has launched 400 missiles toward Israel.
About 20 of those struck populated areas, resulting in multiple fatalities, hundreds of injuries and widespread damage.
In addition, Iran launched 1,000 drones at Israeli territory. Only 100 reached Israeli airspace and none successfully hit their targets. Report here

The destructive potential of Iranian ballistic missiles is immense. Most have warheads weighing 500 kg. or more.
Since they travel along a trajectory above the atmosphere, due to their high velocity during descent they accumulate significant kinetic energy and upon impact generate blast waves and shockwaves that cause major damage in addition to the explosive payload.

The interception systems’ success rate against hundreds of explosive-laden ballistic missiles stands at 95%.
Israeli air defences forces have demonstrated an ability to efficiently block the penetration of UAV swarms or individual drones.
It is impossible to achieve a completely hermetic aerial defence against simultaneous barrages of UAVs and ballistic missiles. Report here

PM Netanyahu said, “We are in an existential battle… Think about what would happen if Iran had nuclear weapons to drop on Israeli cities. Think about what would happen if Iran had 20,000 such missiles….This is an existential threat to Israel.” Report here

WHY ISRAEL STRUCK IRAN

Israel had discovered that Iranian scientists had conducted successful experiments in the design process of a nuclear weapon, bringing it weeks away from being able to produce a bomb. Report here

Israeli UN Amb. Danon:
When the tyrants in Tehran declare that the State of Israel is a “cancerous tumour” that must be eradicated, we believe them. When the regime displays a massive clock in Tehran counting down the time until Israel’s destruction, we believe them. When the Islamic Republic’s leaders chant proudly “Death to Israel” and “Death to America,” we believe them.
While the world dismissed these threats, Israel did not…Israel’s decision to launch Operation Rising Lion was born of necessity. At every stage, Israel waited for diplomacy to work, waited for the international community to act…. Israel has done what the world should have done long ago.Report here

GERMANY

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has expressed respect for Israel’s attack on Iran, calling it a service to Western allies. “This is the dirty work that Israel is doing for all of us,” Merz said on Tuesday. “This mullah regime has brought death and destruction to the world,” he added. “I can only say: the greatest respect for the fact that the Israeli army and the Israeli leadership had the courage to do this.” Report here

CIVILIAN SUFFERING THROUGHOUT ISRAEL

With daily Iranian missile attacks on populated areas, the entire country is on a war footing with schools, nurseries and many businesses closed. Israeli airspace has only just re-opened temporarily to allow a few rescue flights to land bringing home Israelis who were stranded abroad.

A Ukrainian family’s heartbreaking story:

A 7-year-old Ukrainian girl Nastia Borik came to Israel in 2022 to receive life-saving treatment for leukemia . She, her mother, grandmother and two cousins were killed by an Iranian missile strike on a Bat Yam apartment building. Her father is in Ukraine fighting in the war against Russia.Report here and here

A few reports giving a picture of a fraction of the destruction in Israel:

The IDF confirmed that Iran launched at least one ballistic missile carrying a cluster bomb warhead at central Israel today, Thursday. The missile’s warhead splits while descending, at an altitude of around 7 km, spreading around 20 smaller munitions at a radius of around 8 km.Report here

Iran unleashed a barrage of 30 missiles on Israel today Thursday. There was a direct hit causing extensive damage to Soroka Hospital in Beersheba, as well as strikes on Holon, Tel Aviv, and Ramat Gan in central Israel, injuring 147 people, 6 seriously. Report here

Mass casualty event averted:

24 hours before an Iranian ballistic missile slammed into the third-floor surgical ward at Soroka hospital, Israeli Health Ministry Director-General Moshe Bar Siman-Tov had ordered Soroka to “Clear the surgery floor in the hospital – it’s not safe.” Thanks to the pre-emptive order, only one patient suffered a minor injury, while dozens of others had been relocated to safer levels. Report here

Tamra, an Israeli Arab town near Haifa

An Iranian missile struck a two-story home killing four women and injuring some 10 people. The building had 2 safe rooms, one on each floor.Reports here and here

Petach Tikva

An elderly couple sheltering in their safe room died when a missile with a large explosive warhead slammed into their 20-story apartment block, impacting a wall right between two safe rooms, which were unable to withstand the intensity of the blast. Report here

Bat Yam

The aftermath of a missile impact which killed 6 civilians has left 1,500 residents—over 1% of the city’s population—homeless. Twenty residential buildings are slated for total demolition due to the damage. Reports here & here

Haifa

Three people were killed in a strike on the Bazan oil refinery complex.Report here

The now-homeless Rotstein family of 10 wonders what lies ahead now that they’ve been reduced to the clothes on their backs and two miraculously saved phylacteries (tefillin).Report here

Tel Aviv

Closer to the impact site, businesses and apartments were largely bombed out. A 15-story high-rise overlooking the impact site was left entirely windowless. Report here

Other war news

Hundreds of Israeli medical professionals were stranded abroad, at a time when the healthcare system needs them most. Dozens of doctors from several hospitals boarded a merchant ship on a special rescue voyage. Report here

The UK’s Chief Rabbi Mirvis was among British citizens stranded in Israel.Report here

With no safe room at home, many Israelis find both community and chaos in public shelters. With 56% of homes unprotected, many seek shelter in schools, railway stations and public areas. Report here

Transgender activist Caitlin Jenner, who was in Israel for Tel Aviv’s (cancelled) Pride Parade, visited the Nova site, Tekuma and Kibbutz Be’eri in the Gaza border area. In a later post on X accompanied by a picture of interceptors and missiles streaking through the Tel Aviv sky, Jenner wrote (ironically), “‘Quiet’ night in Tel Aviv. Pray for us all. We will prevail. I am happy to stand with Israel today, now more than ever. Report here

AN ISRAELI PILOT ON ATTACKING IRAN

“There’s an insane sense here of mission and pride that we’re fighting an enemy that’s threatening to destroy us, and we’re strong against it.”
“Every surface-to-surface missile that we destroy is one missile less to be launched against Israeli civilians, and every launcher that we destroy is another blow to their ability to harm us. It’s clear to all of us what we’re doing there.” Report here (paywall)

WEIZMANN INSTITUTE

Just days after it sustained devastating damage to its labs by an Iranian missile, the Weizmann Institute was awarded six out of Israel’s total 12 grants from the European Research Council (ERC).

The laboratory of Prof. Eldad Tzahor, a globally recognized expert in cardiac regeneration was completely destroyed.

Also obliterated was the lab of Dr. Leeat Yankielowicz-Keren, a senior cancer researcher in the Faculty of Biology.

She said that expensive medical equipment can be replaced, “but what can’t be are many tumour samples taken and studied over five years from cancer patients, not only in Israel but also in the US, France, Switzerland, and other countries.” Report here

Footnote:

Weizmann Institute researchers have developed a device to recognise people’s unique respiration, enabling scientists to determine physical health, depression & anxiety. How you breathe is as unique as your fingerprint.Article here Times article here (paywall)

MEDIA CRITIQUE

As Iran rains missiles on Israeli cities after targeted attacks on nuclear sites, the media calls it “Tit for Tat” Article here

GAZA

An IDF soldier Sgt. First Class (res.) Noam Shemesh, 21was killed Saturday during fighting in the southern Gaza Strip.

Two IDF soldiers Cpt (res) Tal Movshovitz, 28, and Staff Sgt Naveh Leshem, 20, were killed fighting in Southern Gaza on Monday.

Reports here here

Aviv Atzili was named as the second hostage whose body was recovered by the IDF last week. He was a warrant officer in the reserves, ran an agricultural machinery garage for Kibbutz Nir Oz and was also an artist. Report here

The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) said Tuesday: “A number of media outlets have falsely reported today that dozens of Palestinians were killed at a GHF aid distribution site. This is categorically untrue. The incident in question did not occur at a GHF site, but rather near a UN World Food Programme (WFP) location.”
“To date, not a single incident has occurred at or in the surrounding vicinity of GHF sites, nor has any incident occurred during our operating hours. Our distribution model is secure and designed specifically to prevent such tragedies, even under extreme pressure.” Report here

All four Gaza Humanitarian Foundation aid distribution points were open to residents on Monday. Since the beginning of the US & Israel-backed GHF aid distribution, 442,080 packages have been handed out, with each package designed to support five people for one week. An additional four distribution points are expected to open. Report here

HOUTHI ATTACK

A ballistic missile launched at Israel by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels on Friday wounded five Palestinians, including three children, in Sa’ir, near Hebron.Report here

COMMENT & OPINION

UK Editorials

Sunday Times: With an audacious attack, which it called Operation Rising Lion, Israel inflicted enormous damage on Iranian pride, as well as the country’s military and nuclear capability. Helped by a network of Mossad agents operating within Iran, Israel struck sites associated with the country’s nuclear program, as well as airfields and missile bases. It claimed to have already achieved air superiority west of Tehran. Perhaps most extraordinary was the success of Israel’s attacks in taking out key Iranian personnel.
Iran represents an existential threat to the state of Israel, and indeed has been such since the Islamic revolution of 1979. Iran attacks Israel both directly and through its many proxies. Were Tehran to develop nuclear weapons, the scale of that threat would only grow.
Iran is also a threat to the UK. Last month three alleged spies appeared in court, charged with targeting journalists working for the independent Iran International TV channel in London. The British security services have consistently warned that Iran is fomenting plots here.
Israel has done the world a service by counteracting Iran’s efforts to turn itself into a nuclear power. It has done so at considerable risk to itself and its citizens. We should stand shoulder to shoulder with it on Iran. Editorial here (paywall)

Daily Mail: We should not forget that Tehran’s mullahs loathe Western liberal values and scorn democracy, so if they managed to acquire nuclear weapons, the whole world would be at risk. Iran is an oppressive theocracy that hates the West, spies on Britain and has had a malign hand in every Middle Eastern conflict of the modern era. Israel’s enemy is our enemy.
Israel believes it has no option but to act pre-emptively. We should acknowledge and support it in that. Editorial here

The role of the US.

Jonathan S Tobin: Two decades of American Folly made Israel’s Iran strike necessary.

Bush punted, Obama and Biden appeased, while Trump 2.0 played into Tehran’s hands by delaying a decision with futile diplomacy, leaving Netanyahu no choice but to act. Article here

Wall Street Journal Editorial: There is much TV chatter that a new regional war has begun in the Middle East, but Iran has been waging war against Israel and the U.S. for decades. Hundreds of Americans have died at its hands. Iran was able to do that killing with conventional arms. A nuclear-armed Iran would be a grave regional and global menace.
Israel, with its keen sense of existential dread, has acted against a danger that threatens everyone. The U.S. has a moral and strategic interest in standing by Israel’s side and helping it finish the job. Editorial here (paywall)

Thane Rosenbaum: After deposing the Shah of Iran in 1979, the Islamists’ first order of business was to take 52 American diplomats hostage and hold them for 444 days

In 1983, Iran-backed Hizbullah bombed the American Embassy in Beirut, along with a Marine barracks, killing nearly 300.

In 2011, Iran attempted to blow up a restaurant in Washington, D.C. More recently, death threats against Donald Trump, and some of his advisors who scuttled the Iran deal, were issued. All along, Iranian zealots burned American flags and chanted, “Death to America!” and “Death to Israel!”
Iran embarked on a plan to arm itself with nuclear and ballistic weapons aimed at the West…It regularly cheated, lied and defied inspectors from the IAEA. With this rich history of terror sponsorship and anti-American animus, what is all this nonsense that Israel’s airstrikes over Tehran is not “our war?” This is absolutely America’s war – even if it allows Israel to wage it. Now let’s assist Israel in finishing the job.Article here

Why Israel Had No Choice

Yair Lapid: Israel’s overnight strike in Iran was a necessity. A regime that repeatedly declares its strategic goal to be the “total annihilation of Israel” cannot be allowed to possess the nuclear capability with which to achieve that goal. A regime that has twice launched hundreds of ballistic missiles and armed drones at Israel has no right to expect immunity…

This war is not against the people of Iran. This war is against the fanatical Iranian leadership that is the enemy of freedom-loving people everywhere. Article here

Nigel Farage: To understand Israel’s action against Iran we need to recognise the total failure of the deal struck a decade ago. The USA, EU and British government’s naive agreement allowed Iran to fund multiple terrorist groups and to speed up their nuclear programme. The Iranian regime wants to wipe Israel and its people off the map and are close to nuclear capability. Who can blame Israel from trying to stop this? The Iranian people deserve better than the current brutal regime.X post here

Col. (ret.) Richard Kemp:
Israel and Iran are not “trading blows,” as some have phrased it. Israel is dealing strategic devastation on Iran, eliminating much of the terrorist regime’s military top brass and key nuclear scientists, and attacking nuclear weapons sites, air defence systems, and offensive drone and missile capabilities. Meanwhile, Iran is lashing out with drones and ballistic missiles fired into Israel’s population centres, deliberately killing and wounding civilians.
For the last two nights I have heard ballistic missiles roar overhead and seen Israel’s impressive air defences knock some of them out of the sky. What if just one that did get through had been armed with a nuclear warhead? Vast numbers would have been killed. That’s why Israel had to launch this pre-emptive assault on the Islamic Republic. Israeli intelligence and the International Atomic Energy Agency both saw that Iran was on the cusp of obtaining nuclear weapons capability.
The rest of the world should be grateful to Israel because a nuclear armed Iran would have threatened us all. All wars are terrible but sometimes they have to be fought to prevent an even worse evil.Article here

Matthew Sayed: Wake up, world. Every conversation I had in Israel in February, including with three former PMs, opposition leaders and security experts, circled back to the Iranian threat. Remember, too, that Iran gaining a nuclear weapon would lead instantly to proliferation across the region and the wider world. In other words, it would be the first domino that could, in time, lead to the destruction of humanity. It is why the phrase I keep hearing — that Israel is doing the world a “favour” — is so inadequate. A favour? It is facing reprisals and death for hitting the head of the snake on behalf of us all. Article here (paywall)

The BBC

Charles Moore: Reporting on Gaza, the BBC repeatedly complains that journalists are forbidden entry to the area by Israel. This then becomes an excuse for repeating uncritically every line of Hamas and the UN agencies. In the case of Iran, the BBC reminds audiences that it is not allowed there, but does not criticize Iran for this. Instead, it concentrates on reporting from Israel, where it tries to make as much of the war damage as possible.
In global power politics, this is arguably the biggest news story since the end of the Cold War. Yet the BBC muffles the plight of Iran and sets up a sort of moral equivalence in which the two countries “trade blows.” It does not remind us that Israel attacked because it is the policy of Iran to destroy it and it has nearly reached the nuclear capacity to do so. Nor does it mention that most of the Iranian attacks target civilians, whereas none of the Israeli ones do.

Signing off from the scene of an Iranian raid on Bat Yam on the “Today” programme, Anna Foster complained not about the Iranian raids whose effects she had just seen with her own eyes, but about “what has been a dangerous and provocative raid on Iran.” Article here (paywall)